Is the Trump bounce real? And other mega trends shaping the M&A market in 2025

Data crunching with Andrew Feeke from MHA, part of Baker Tilly International

Hello Rainmakers,

So much of the work of doing deals is about having a sixth sense for how big mega trends have an effect on the ground.

Sometimes it takes a global data set to explain why deals are taking longer to complete, why acquirers from certain jurisdictions are active, while others less so.

It was refreshing to get access to some joined up thinking from the winner of the Rainmaker of the Year award from 2023, Andrew Feeke of MHA, part of the Baker Tilly International network, which has done deep diving into global transactional activity and made some ballsy forecasts into what this year may look like for their community of rainmakers globally.

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A ballsy forecast - the outlook for M&A is decent

Let’s take the headline numbers first, according to data provider Dealogic, show global M&A volumes reached $3.2 trillion during the first 11 months of 2024, up from $2.76 trillion over the same period in 2023.

But there’s a balance. While the global transactions market last year was defined by ongoing uncertainty; geopolitical unrest and sluggish economic growth weighed heavily on M&A activity levels. However, a reduction in interest rates across many markets as a result of lower inflation offered a much-needed boost in the second half of 2024.

Andrew Feeke says the data reflects this mixed picture: “With the world facing significant change and volatility, the outlook for 2025 M&A activity presents both reasons for optimism and caution. While the ‘Trump bounce’ in the US is likely to have a positive knock-on effect in the UK, domestic challenges such as stagnant growth and ongoing geopolitical conflicts across Europe and Middle East could temper expectations.

“Additionally, emerging markets are expected to play a more prominent role in any increase in M&A volumes, particularly in renewable energy, digital infrastructure, and fintech, as businesses seek to diversify geographically and mitigate supply chain vulnerabilities. The evolving geopolitical landscape, including China’s economic policies and global trade tensions, will also be pivotal in shaping M&A opportunities,” he says.

So while transaction volumes in the past 12 months remained below the buoyant levels of recent years, there are signs of cautious optimism in many parts of the world. This reflects confidence in economic growth in certain markets, heightened corporate appetite for strategic growth, and robust capital reserves of both corporate and Private Equity (PE) buyers.

Feeke has had sight of data in a report which draws on insights from Baker Tilly International’s member firm Corporate Finance network.